经济学人季度调查表明商业前景向好
[搜船网 搜船资讯] 核心提示：BUSINESS people have turned bullish everywhere except eastern Europe, according to a quarterly survey of over 1,500 executives undertaken for The Econ...
BUSINESS people have turned bullish everywhere except eastern Europe, according to a quarterly survey of over 1,500 executives undertaken for The Economist and the Financial Times. Overall confidence, measured as the balance of respondents who think global business conditions will improve against those who expect them to get worse, rose from a dismal minus 11 percentage points in the last quarter of 2012 to plus seven in the first quarter of 2013. That pushes the barometer into positive territory for the first time since the quarterly survey began in 2011.
经济学人（The Economist）和金融时报（The Financial Times）对1500多位高管做的季度调查表明，除东欧之外的全球商业人士一改以往的悲观看法，看好未来商业前景。在对全球商业环境的看法方面，持改善观点与持恶化观点的受调查者人数占总人数的比值之差被用来衡量全球信心指数。去年第四季度，全球信心指数只有令人沮丧的-11%，而今年第一季度上升为7%，这是自2011年季度调查开展以来首次为正。
Executives in the Middle East and Africa are particularly upbeat. More than a third believe business conditions will improve during the next six months; almost two-thirds expect their firm to boost capital spending in 2013. Those in transport and tourism are the most optimistic; those in technology and the public sector, the least. Globally, 43% of those surveyed by the Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economist’s sister company, think their company will boost investment, twice as many as predict a drop.
中东和非洲的高管尤其充满信心。其中超过三分之一的人认为商业环境在接下来的六个月中会不断改善；大约三分之二的人认为其公司将会在2013年增加资本支出。从事交通运输业和旅游业的高管们最为乐观，而科技行业和公共部门的高管们却恰恰相反。从全球来看，参与经济学人姊妹公司—经济学人智库调查的人中，认为公司将增加投资的人数占到43%，是那些预测公司投资将下降的人数的两倍。
Track global business expectations over time with our new interactive barometer
使用经济学人新的交互式晴雨表，实时查看商业人士对全球商业的看法
The biggest worry remains economic and market risk. This troubles 59% of respondents. One-third fret over political risk; a quarter are concerned about competition from new entrants.
人们仍最担心经济和市场风险。59%的受调查者对此感到苦恼。三分之一的人担心政治风险；有四分之一的人担忧新加入者的竞争。
Overall, four out of five executives think the euro crisis is not yet over, although western Europeans are a bit more positive than most. More than half of respondents say banking regulation has not gone far enough. Almost half (47%) say uncertainty over America’s fiscal policy is affecting their investment plans.
总地来说，尽管西欧人比大多数人要更为乐观，但是五分之四的高管认为欧元危机还并没有结束。一半以上的受调查者表示银行业监管还亟需加强。几乎一半（47%）的人认为美国财政政策的不确定性正影响他们的投资计划。
Still, growing optimism should feed through to jobs. Nearly half of firms expect to have more employees by next January compared with only a fifth who expect to have fewer. Employment prospects are brightest in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, worst in Europe and North America.
人们日益增长的乐观情绪也应该传导至工作方面。只有五分之一的公司表示将裁员，与之相比，几乎一半的公司认为到明年一月之前，将会招收更多雇员。亚洲、中东和非洲的就业前景最为光明；欧洲和美国的则最为黯淡。
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