IF TRADE routes are the global economy’s circulatory system, the port of Long Beach is one of the valves. Last year the port processed 6m containers, making it America’s second-busiest (neighbouring Los Angeles is number one). Nearly 5,000 vessels visited Long Beach in 2012. Their scale is vast. The OOCL Asia, a container ship observed recently by your correspondent, resembles a floating car park. It has a capacity of 8,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs); vessels that can carry almost three times as much may be on the way.
如果说商贸航线是全球经济的血液循环系统，那么长滩港就是其中的一个心脏瓣膜。去年，长滩港集装箱吞吐量达到了600万，使之成为美国第二繁忙的港口（毗邻的洛杉矶港位居榜首）。2012年，将近5000艘船舶造访长滩港。这些船舶的规模颇为巨大。本刊记者最近观察了一艘名为海外东方的集装箱船，这艘船好似一个浮动停车场。它拥有8000TEU（20英尺标准集装箱）的运载能力；船舶几乎是陆路运力的三倍。
Trucks line up at the port entrance, gleaming in the Californian sun: the grubby fleet of yesteryear has largely been retired by environmental rules. The containers are unloaded, stacked and eventually picked up for distribution across America—by train if the destination is over 600 miles (966km) away, otherwise by truck. After the trucks pass through a mandatory check for radioactivity, many of them will head to warehouses in the Inland Empire, the urban sprawl east of Los Angeles.
卡车在港口入口处一字排开，在加州的阳光下显得格外耀眼：昔日船队已破败不堪，锈迹斑斑，按照环境法规，它们大部已被弃用。集装箱被卸下，堆放，并最终装载派往美国各地——目的地600英里（966公里）以上的用火车，其余的用卡车。在卡车通过强制的放射性检测后，许多都将开往加州内陆帝国——洛杉矶东部城郊——的仓库。
Ports like Long Beach cannot tell the whole story of world trade. Although up to 90% of trade by volume is seaborne, low-value “dry bulk”, like the scrap metal piled up at one Long Beach terminal, accounts for about half of it. Small, valuable stuff often goes by air. According to Jock O’Connell at Beacon Economics, a consultancy, the average value of a kilo of containerised cargo arriving at Los Angeles/Long Beach ports in the first 11 months of 2012 was $6.34; at LAX airport it was $102.78.
港口，如长滩港，并无法说明全球贸易的全部。虽然从体积量上来说，高达90%的商贸通过海运，但低价值的“干散货”，比如堆积在长滩港一处码头的金属废料，约占其中的一半。小而高价值的物品通常使用空运。据比康经济顾问公司的乔克•奥康奈尔透露，2012年前11个月抵达洛杉矶港/长滩港的集装箱货物每公斤的平均价值是6.34美元；而在洛杉矶国际机场，每公斤价值达到了102.78美元。
But Long Beach still offers a prism on the global economy, and on US trade in particular. For one thing, the airborne share of trade is declining as the efficiency of seaborne trade grows. Los Angeles and Long Beach are spending over $5 billion between them on infrastructure to cope with ever-larger ships. Long Beach is building Middle Harbour, a 321-acre (130-hectare) container terminal that will be able to receive vessels of up to 18,000 TEUs. This month construction began on a replacement for the Gerald Desmond bridge, which will allow larger vessels to penetrate deeper into the harbour.
但长滩港仍可为观察全球经济提供一面三棱镜，尤其是对美国贸易来说。首先，随着海运贸易效率的提高，空运的贸易份额正在下降。洛杉矶港和长滩港正斥资50多亿美元在两港之间兴建基础设施，以满足越变越大船舶。长滩港正在建造“中部港口”，一个占地321英亩（130公顷）的集装箱码头，这将使其能够接收18000TEU的船舶。本月，替代杰拉德•达斯蒙德大桥的工程已经动工，更大的船舶将得以穿过大桥进入港口。
The routes plied by these ships provide clues to the strength of the world’s big economies. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s Los Angeles and Long Beach ports benefited as Asian countries, particularly China, were integrated into the global trading system (see charts). Container traffic at Long Beach has more than doubled since 1995. Trade volumes slumped dramatically in 2008-09, and activity has yet to regain its pre-crisis peak. But the outlook is strong: a 2009 report predicted a doubling of container traffic at Los Angeles/Long Beach by 2030. A proposed Pacific free-trade agreement could boost maritime trade further; Europe’s doldrums have already seen ships redeployed to transpacific routes.
被这些船舶占据的航线为揭示世界各大经济体的实力提供了线索。上世纪90年代至本世纪最初十年，亚洲国家，特别是中国，融入了全球贸易体系（见图表），洛杉矶港和长滩港由此受益。1995年以来，长滩港的集装箱吞吐量增长了一倍多。2008年至2009年，贸易量急剧下跌，目前贸易活动还未恢复到危机前的峰值水平。但前景是乐观的：一份2009年的报告预测，到2030年，洛杉矶港/长滩港的吞吐量将翻一番。一项已被提出的太平洋自由贸易协定（指TPP协定）将进一步促进海上贸易的发展；欧洲经济的不景气，已经目睹了船舶转向跨太平洋航线。
The cargoes that fill the ships at America’s ports reflect changes in US consumption patterns (eg, fewer oil imports as domestic production increases). They also illuminate rising wealth abroad: last year the value of agricultural products exported from west-coast ports exceeded that of recyclable materials for the first time, thanks in part to Asia’s growing taste for meat.
美国港口内船舶装载的货物反映了美国消费模式的转变（例如，随着国内石油生产的增长，原油进口减少了）。它还反映了国外不断增长的财富：去年，美国西海岸港口出口的农产品价值首次超过了可循环利用材料，部分得益于亚洲对肉类需求的增长。
And the proportion of containers that leave the terminals empty after having arrived full tells a story about America’s persistent trade deficit. Last year at Long Beach it was about half. This proportion may well shrink. In 2010 Barack Obama called for a doubling of American exports within five years. That goal is starting to look too ambitious, but the export sector has been outpacing the economy: in the 12 months to September 2012 American exports of goods and services were worth over $2.1 trillion, 38% more than in 2009.
来时满载，去时空空的集装箱比例还说明了美国长期以来的贸易赤字。去年在长滩港，比例约为一半。这一比例可能大幅萎缩。2010年，奥巴马曾要求美国出口在五年内翻番。这一目标现在开始看起来有点过于远大，但出口业表现已经好过美国整体经济：截至2012年9月的12个月中，美国出口的物资和服务价值超过了2.1万亿美元，对比2009年增长了38%。
A big boost could come from the export, in liquefied form, of the natural gas opened up by America’s shale boom. The Department of Energy must approve all LNG exports, and licences for most countries are hard to obtain. But producers are hungry to take advantage of higher prices abroad. Asia currently accounts for almost two-thirds of global LNG imports. This leaves Pacific states like California well placed to take advantage, should politicians adopt a more relaxed attitude.
一大增长来源于蓬勃发展的美国页岩天然气（以液态形式）出口。能源部必须批准所有LNG（液化天然气）出口，而大部分国家的许可则很难获得。但液化天然气生产者急切地盼望从国外更高LNG价格中获益。亚洲目前几乎占到全球LNG进口的三分之二。这会使像加州这样的靠近太平洋的州从中受益，从政者也应报以一个更为宽松的态度。
Other developments may not help the west coast. The much-heralded expansion of the Panama Canal, now postponed until April 2015, will make room for vessels with a capacity of up to 13,000 TEUs (only tiddlers below 4,400 TEUs are now allowed). Over time that could mean a shift of business away from Long Beach to east-coast and Gulf of Mexico ports, though how much will partly depend on the canal’s fees and the capacity of these ports.
其他方面的进展可能不利于美国西海岸。已预先通报多次的巴拿马运河拓宽计划，目前推迟至2015年4月，这将使其可以容纳运载能力高达13000TEU的船舶（目前巴拿马运河只能通过4400TEU的小型船舶）。假以时日，这可能意味着港口生意将从长滩港转移至美国东海岸和墨西哥湾的港口，虽然，多大程度上的转移，将部分取决于运河收费和这些港口的承载能力。
Anthony Otto, president of Long Beach Container Terminal, does not sound too concerned. Last year LBCT’s Hong Kong-based parent company placed a big bet on Long Beach’s future by taking out a 40-year, $4.6 billion lease at Middle Harbour. The transit times, facilities and cost structure at Long Beach, says Mr Otto, will ensure it stays the “preferred gateway” to American consumers for many shippers.
长滩集装箱码头公司董事长安东尼•奥拓听起来并不是非常担心。去年总部设在香港的LBCT的母公司对长滩港的未来赌上了一把，耗资46亿美元租赁“中部港口”40年。奥拓说，长滩港的运输时间、设施和成本结构方面的优势，将确保它在许多船商心目中维持住作为通往美国消费者的“优先关口”地位。
But some things the port can do little about. One is the growth of non-traditional trade routes (see article). The China-Brazil connection is increasingly vital. Pascal Lamy, head of the World Trade Organisation, has suggested that Africa could be China’s biggest trade partner within three to five years. Another challenge is “nearshoring”, the shift of manufacturing capacity closer to American consumers (see our special report). Mexico has been the big winner here: since 2010 it has outpaced China in increasing its exports to America. Most goods travel over land: fine news for truckers and trains, less so for ports.
但有些事情，长滩港可做不多。一是非传统贸易航线的增长。中国和巴西之间的关系正日益紧密。世贸组织总干事帕斯卡•拉米称非洲有可能在三至五年内成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。另一大挑战来自“近岸外包”，将制造能力转移至更靠近美国消费者的地方。墨西哥成了最大的赢家：2010年以来，在向美国新增的出口上，墨西哥已经超过了中国。墨西哥大部分货物都由陆路运输：对卡车司机和火车来说是个好消息，对港口来说可不是。
